Beige Book Report: Cleveland
December 1, 1987
Summary
Business activity in the Fourth District appears to be relatively
unaffected by the recent stock market decline. Manufacturing remains
strong as production, employment, new orders, and prices continue to
increase and inventories remain low. Capital spending plans appear
unaffected by the stock market decline. The effect of the stock
market turmoil on retail sales is uncertain at this point, but many
retailers expressed concern about its impact on Christmas sales.
Automobile sales are down, but appliance and electronic sales are
reported to be about normal for this time of year.
Retail Trade
The stock market turmoil has generated mixed responses from local
retailers. Several local automobile dealers said that they are
experiencing slower sales in recent weeks. Appliance and electronics
retailers have noticed little change. However, some respondents
expect a slow Christmas season, particularly in the big-ticket and
luxury items, which they attribute to a perceived cautiousness among
consumers. After the stock market decline, one retailer revised
downward his estimate of Christmas sales from 7 percent to 3.2
percent. Markdowns of many items are already planned and some have
been implemented prior to the Christmas shopping season.
Labor Markets
Ohio's unemployment rate edged up slightly from 5.5 percent in
September to 5.8 percent in October. A similar increase occurred for
Pennsylvania. In both cases, this modest increase was due primarily
to a stronger growth in the labor force than in employment.
Unemployment rates in the Lexington area continued to fall as
employment grew in textiles and apparel.
The Ohio, employment continued to increase across a broad range of sectors, including manufacturing which has experienced a resurgence in recent months. Over the year, total employment in Ohio rose 2.5 percent, while the number of unemployed decreased 34 percent. Despite the overall improvement in employment, the number of manufacturing workers fell 6,000 over the year to date. Losses were concentrated in durable-goods industries. Modest gains in primary metals, lumber and wood products, food and kindred products, and chemicals were not sufficient to overcome losses in transportation equipment, nonelectrical machinery, and fabricated metal products. Nonmanufacturing employment, on the other hand, increased 3.5 percent, with the largest percentage gains in construction and services.
Earnings of production workers in manufacturing industries in Ohio continued to increase through September, primarily due to increased overtime. Their average workweek of 42.5 hours in September was .2 hours longer than the previous month.
Manufacturing
Purchasing managers reported increases in production, new orders,
prices, and employment. While remaining optimistic about the
continued expansion in manufacturing activity, many purchasers
complained of escalating prices and very poor vendor delivery
performance. Inventories of commodities and finished products
declined from already low levels and many items, including steel and
aluminum products, remained in short supply.
Steel production increased sharply in October, rebounding from earlier declines. Production in the Youngstown and Pittsburgh districts, for example, increased by roughly 25 percent from the previous month. Some respondents commented that this production increase is taxing an already high capacity utilization rate.
The recent stock market decline appears to have had little effect of capital spending plans of area businesses. A supplier of drills, valves and other industrial tools reported that they see no indication that their customers are planning to cutback or reduce expenditures. Plans for large scale investment projects, such as the relining of a blast finance in the Youngstown area and the restarting of a mill in western Pennsylvania, appear to be moving along as scheduled.
Housing
House sales in the area do not appear to be adversely affected by
the recent stock market decline. Real estate agents report that
sales of higher priced horns have improved since October. Some
agents expect sales to steadily improve as mortgage rates decline in
response to lower stock prices.
Banking
District loan demand has been moderate. Total loans outstanding at
large banks rose at an annual rate of 4 percent during October. This
lending was down from the pace experienced in August and September,
but up compared to loan growth registered during the same period a
year ago. Real estate and business lending accounted for nearly all
of October's loan growth. Consumer installment lending has been
relatively flat with gains in home-equity financing offsetting a
slight contraction in traditional consumer installment credit.