Beige Book Report: Kansas City
February 3, 1971
There are indications that the economy of the Tenth District may be
showing renewed strength. A growing optimism is present in some
parts of the District, beyond what may be inferred from current
business statistics. Reports from Head Office and Branch Directors
support the evidence from the statistical indicators that
construction activity and outlook is a relatively bright spot in the
economy of the Tenth District. Both residential and nonresidential
building are responding favorably to factors such as increasing
availability of funds, improving economic conditions, and the
resumption of activity following the end of the construction
workers' strike in Kansas City.
The slowdown in the growth of personal income seems to have been
reversed in the District as a whole, and the District unemployment
rate has apparently stabilized. Of course, there are variations
within the District and among different industries. For example,
further layoffs have been announced for several defense-oriented
establishments. In contrast, business conditions generally seem
stronger in Colorado, New Mexico, and Oklahoma than in the remaining
District states. Abnormally severe winter weather also has reduced
the pace of economic activity in the northern section of the
District. On the whole, retail activity during the Christmas season
was reported to have been reasonably good-in many cases, better than
earlier expected.
Strength in the value of construction contract awards is found in
both the residential and nonresidential parts of the industry.
Again, the northern section of the District appears to be somewhat
laggard as far as construction is concerned. Some Branch Directors
from Wyoming and Nebraska report that Section 235 and 236 housing is
about the only kind of residential building going on in their areas.
In the Omaha area, there is very little in the way of new commercial
and industrial projects, only spotty interest in apartment building,
and not much custom building of new single-family dwellings.
Elsewhere, construction activity is relatively strong-especially in
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Colorado. An upsurge in home building is
reported for both Tulsa and Oklahoma City, and both also are
experiencing a good deal of commercial construction activity.
Albuquerque, too, is having an increase in both multiple-unit and
single-family building, and considerable optimism is reported in
business circles there-with regard to the general business outlook
as well as in housing. Commercial and residential building (both
single-family and multiple-unit structures) growth is vigorous in
Colorado, both in Denver and in other urban centers as well. There
(as elsewhere in these states), strength in housing is reported
across the spectrum from smaller, less expensive single-family homes
(some due to Section 235 and 236 subsidies) through higher-priced
single-family dwellings to high-rise, high-price apartment
buildings.
The general retrenchment of livestock prices during the last half of
1970-due primarily to the new sharp increase in hog marketings-had a
pronounced impact on District farm income. Last year, cash receipts
from District farm marketings-73 percent from livestock sales-
increased 2.4 percent above 1969 levels, as compared with a 3
percent rise for the nation. However, third and fourth quarter
receipts in the District were, respectively, 2.6 and 4.1 percent
lower than in the comparable periods for 1969, with both crops and
livestock contributing to the decline.
There are indications that the District livestock picture may show
improvement in 1971. Recent reports point to a likely abatement of
the increase in sow farrowings, compared with the levels of a year
ago. Likewise, the number of cattle on feed in the District, as of
January 1, was 3.9 million head-down 1 percent from 1970. For the
nation, the decline was 3 percent. Marketings in the District during
the October-December quarter were 11 percent higher than in the
year-earlier period, while placements were down 4 percent. Hence,
the production adjustments currently underway in the hog industry,
together with a likely reduction in fed cattle marketings, point to
higher livestock prices in the months ahead.
After declining farm prices from March to December 1970 helped to
introduce some stability into the overall wholesale price index, the
January 1971 increase in the WPI was spurred mostly by rises in the
farm products and processed feeds components of the index. In view
of the prospects for higher livestock prices, it is unlikely that
declining farm prices will exert a stabilizing influence on the
overall WPI in 1971.