College enrollments increased in fall 2024 despite recent challenges

College enrollments declined across the country over the last decade. Following a peak in 2010, the decline was largely driven by slowing population growth and high tuition costs. Enrollments took another hit during the COVID-19 recession recovery as job openings soared and wages rose, potentially reducing interest in a college degree.

Some of those circumstances have since changed. Enrollments first began to tick up in 2023 amid moderating wage growth and a decline in job openings. By the fall 2024 semester, enrollment totals rebounded across much of the nation, according to newly released data from the National Student Clearinghouse. In the Ninth District, all states experienced a substantial increase in students. Some states even surpassed pre-pandemic levels for the first time (see Figure 1).

This surge in growth was a welcome development for higher education institutions that have struggled to attract and retain students amid demographic changes across the country. Slowing population growth has shrunk the pool of potential students, and a sharp drop in U.S. birthrates after 2007 will shrink the number of recent high school graduates again after 2025.

Many also feared that delays with the federal financial aid process would sharply restrict enrollments in the fall of 2024. Financial aid applications did see a notable decline. But higher education institutions have shown some agility in meeting this and other enrollment challenges, at least for now.

A community college comeback

Unique demographic trends, local job markets, and government programs can shape enrollment patterns in each state. However, one thing was consistent across most Ninth District states: Enrollment growth was stronger at two-year public schools than at four-year public schools for the 2024–2025 school year (see Figure 2).

This growth came after notable declines after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public two-year schools experienced a 15 percent drop in enrollments from 2019 to 2021, while public four-year enrollments were largely flat nationally. The economy likely played a part in this difference. Two-year colleges may be more susceptible to losing students to strong labor markets, and the early part of the pandemic recovery had exceptionally high job openings and wage growth.

Some institutions have used the enrollment challenge to rethink their approach. With high tuition costs and doubts about the return-on-investment of a degree often deterring students, many schools have developed or expanded cheaper, shorter-term programs that provide flexibility. These programs appeal to students who may be in the workforce and are looking to upskill or who want to quickly master hard skills.

“Demand for two-year programs is coming from both incoming high school grads and those older adults already in the workforce,” observed Paul Shepherd, associate vice chancellor for student affairs and enrollment management at Minnesota State. “Lots of people are looking to upskill.”

Jerry Rostad, vice chancellor of strategy and strategic engagement with the North Dakota University System (NDUS), has also seen this shift. “This isn’t your 70s higher-ed anymore,” he said. “Almost all of what we’re doing these days is taking traditional bachelor’s degrees and shaping them into certificate programs so they’re quicker to get through.”

Even within the Montana University System, which saw its four-year programs grow more than its two-year degree programs, there has been a shift away from liberal arts toward more technical programs. “Students now want to clearly see that path from starting as a freshman to what their job is going to be in four years. That attitude is one of the bigger shifts that I’ve seen,” explained Dave Kuntz, director of strategic communications at the University of Montana.

FAFSA fears and college affordability

This growth in enrollments occurred after a tumultuous release of an updated Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) form. The FAFSA form is a requirement for accessing federal financial aid. Although the 2024–2025 school year form was meant to be simplified, it faced numerous challenges upon rollout in late 2023. As a result, many prospective students faced delays with receiving their aid packages.

Higher education officials worried that the uncertainty from the FAFSA delays would lead to a decline in enrollments, especially for recent high school graduates. Financial aid applications did see a notable decline in completions last year. However, a special analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse revealed that enrollments still increased for 18-year-old freshmen across much of the country (see Figure 3).

While a drop in enrollments didn’t materialize, these FAFSA delays may have been a contributing factor in the increase in two-year college enrollments. With many students unsure of their financial aid picture, the lower cost of community schools and two-year degree programs posed less of a financial risk.

The delays also occurred as schools across the Ninth District expanded free tuition programs and introduced new enrollment strategies, which may have offset some of the delay-induced financial uncertainty.

One of these programs included Minnesota’s North Star Promise, which grants free tuition at any Minnesota public college and university for students whose family gross adjusted income is under $80,000 a year. Implemented for the first time in the fall 2024 semester, this program has provided free tuition to over 14,500 students in Minnesota so far, according to preliminary estimates from Minnesota’s Office of Higher Education.

In Wisconsin and North Dakota, some colleges and universities introduced or expanded their own free tuition programs. In South Dakota, the board of regents extended a tuition freeze for all state campuses for a third year. Other schools increased marketing efforts to highlight the low costs and financial support they provide.

“We were worried that the Minnesota North Star Promise would draw students away from our campuses, but we have actually seen enrollment growth,” said Rostad with NDUS. “Some campuses came up with their own version of the Promise but not all of them. While there were various approaches, growth was across the board.”

Struggles still ahead for higher ed

It’s hard say whether this recent increase in enrollments will be sustained. As of early 2025, many state governments are dealing with tighter budgets, and schools are bracing for impending federal funding cuts. Each state also faces unique demographic trends that will challenge future enrollment.

“Most of the people moving into Montana are older folks coming here to retire, so we have a pretty concerning demographic cliff specific to Montana,” said Kuntz. “This is why there’s been a little bit more of an emphasis on nontraditional programs, since if we want to continue our growth in the years ahead, it probably can’t just be powered by that traditional four-year undergraduate student.”

Demographic cliffs are less of an immediate concern in North Dakota. “A lot of our growth has to do with young families that came to a state with the Bakken Oil Boom, so now we’re seeing some of the fruits of that,” said Rostad. “We’ll be facing [the demographic cliff] down the road, but we’ll be way ahead of the rest of the country when we deal with it.”

Meanwhile, Shepherd with Minnesota State sees other opportunities to keep growing. “There are going to be times where demographics may be more favorable than others in terms of just numbers, but there will always be a potential student population that’s not being reached that could be reached,” said Shepherd. “Reaching those students will be crucial for us to persevere through demographic ups and downs.”