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Contact: Patti Lorenzen
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Patti.Lorenzen@mpls.frb.org

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Economic Growth in the Ninth District for 2015

Minneapolis, January 6, 2015 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Growth for Minnesota in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for moderate growth in the Minnesota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Minnesota is expected to grow by 1.9 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 3.7 percent in November 2014 to 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. Growth in personal income is anticipated to be 4.6 percent.

“The Minnesota economy grew moderately in 2014 and will continue to grow at about the same rate in 2015,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Minnesota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The survey results showed optimism for economic growth in 2015,” Madden said. “According to the business poll, nine of 10 businesses are optimistic and expect growth for their own operations and the state economy.”

The survey of business leaders indicates that businesses expect more sales and investment in 2015 and expect to increase employment. Respondents to the manufacturing survey also expect productivity and profits to rise.

In regard to the state economy, both surveys see increases in employment, investment and consumer spending in 2015.

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for Minnesota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Faster Economic Growth for Montana in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for faster growth in the Montana economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Montana is expected to grow by a solid 1.9 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 4.3 percent in November 2014 to 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“The economy in Montana grew at an average pace in 2014, but it looks like growth will increase in 2015,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Montana outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “The manufacturing survey and the statistical model both suggest solid economic gains for Montana in 2015,” Madden said. “Manufacturer survey respondents are generally more optimistic than the respondents to the business poll.”

Montana respondents to the manufacturing survey expect increased consumer spending, business investment and employment. Montana respondents to the business outlook poll predict increases in business investment and employment, but relatively flat consumer spending.

Regarding their individual operations, business poll respondents expect flat activity, while the manufacturing survey respondents expect increased capital investment in 2015. Manufacturers also see higher sales and prices in 2015.

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for Montana and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Solid Economic Growth for North Dakota in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued growth in the North Dakota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in North Dakota is expected to grow by a faster-than-historical average of 4.6 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 2.7 percent in November 2014 to 2.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2015. Personal income is expected to grow 5.5 percent.

“Oil and gas prices tumbled in 2014, and so caution should be used when looking at the statistical model results for 2015, which do not directly take into account energy prices,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the North Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “The surveys and the statistical model both point to solid economic growth in 2015,” Madden said. “Even with the drop in oil prices, 88 percent of the business respondents reported optimism for the state’s economy.”

North Dakota respondents expect businesses in their state to increase employment and business investment and North Dakota consumers to increase spending.

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect a positive year with more sales, production, capital investment and employment in 2015. They also expect to raise prices, wages and benefits.

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for North Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Modest Economic Growth for South Dakota in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for modest economic growth in South Dakota. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in South Dakota is expected to grow by a below-historical average of 0.9 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 3.3 percent in November 2014 to 3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. Personal income is expected to grow 5.3 percent.

“The South Dakota economy grew at a modest pace in 2014, and we expect this to continue in 2015,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the South Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “The statistical model forecasts modest growth, while business leaders see slightly increased economic activity in 2015,” Madden said. “Businesses expect flat sales activity, but plan to increase employment and capital investment at their own operations.”

The survey of manufacturers indicates that respondents expect more activity at their firms, with solid sales and production in 2015. They also expect to hire more employees and raise prices. Meanwhile, the South Dakota respondents to the business poll expect flat activity.

When asked about their state economy, South Dakota respondents to the manufacturing survey said they expect gains, while respondents to the business outlook poll expect relatively flat activity. 

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for South Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Economic Growth for the Upper Peninsula in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for moderate growth in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in the U.P. is expected to grow by 1.1 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 7.4 percent in November 2014 to 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

“The U.P. economy expanded at a modest pace in 2014, but faster growth is expected in 2015,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the U.P. outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model point to moderate economic growth in the U.P. during 2015,” Madden said. “The statistical model expects above average growth, and the manufacturing survey respondents expect increases in activity for their businesses and their communities.” When business leaders were asked about their state economy, U.P. respondents expected increases in business investment, consumer spending, employment and housing starts.

Business leaders are also optimistic about their own operations, as they expect increased sales, investment and employment. Respondents to the manufacturing survey expect increases in production, employment and investment.

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for the U.P. and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Slightly Faster Economic Growth in Northwestern Wisconsin in 2015

The 2015 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for slightly faster growth in the northwestern Wisconsin economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in the whole state of Wisconsin is expected to grow by a faster-than-historical average 1.9 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 5.2 percent in November 2014 to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015. Personal income is expected to grow 4.4 percent.

“The economy in Wisconsin grew at a decent pace in 2014, and the forecast model expects slightly faster growth in 2015,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the northwestern Wisconsin outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 315 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 538 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 8. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Just as the statistical model is forecasting growth, survey respondents from northwestern Wisconsin are optimistic for their local economies in 2015,” Madden said. “Business leaders also see growth at their own companies.”

When asked about their state economy, respondents expected increased activity. Business leaders expect increases in consumer spending, business investment and employment. Northwestern Wisconsin respondents to the manufacturing survey expect increased economic growth and overall corporate profits.

Businesses are also optimistic about their individual operations, as both business leaders and manufacturers expect more sales, capital investment and employment gains in 2015.

More details on the 2015 economic forecast for Wisconsin and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2015 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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