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MF-VAR Forecast

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is no longer maintaining a MF-VAR model. The June 3, 2016 forecast is the final update. Model documentation, files, and forecasts are available below.

The Minneapolis Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregression (MF-VAR) model of the U.S. economy is the most recent in a line of statistical forecasting models that began with research conducted at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and the University of Minnesota in the 1970s and early 1980s. Rising computer power led to resurgent interest in these models in the 1990s, which in turn brought about improvements along several dimensions. The current model reflects many of these advances. A noteworthy feature of the model is that it combines data measured at both monthly and quarterly frequencies so that forecasts reflect up-to-date monthly information as it becomes available. Please note that the forecasts produced by the MF-VAR model do not represent official forecasts of the Minneapolis Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.

MF-VAR Papers and Memos

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR [PDF]
Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song
December 2012

A 14-Variable Mixed-Frequency VAR Model [PDF]
Kenneth Beauchemin
December 2013

Research Memo: Adding Nonfarm Employment to the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model [PDF]
Kenneth Beauchemin
January 2015 (current model version)

MF-VAR Model Files

MF-VAR Model Files [ZIP]
Download the zip file of all materials needed to run the MF-VAR model.


2016

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2015

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2014

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2013

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